2023 USFL Week 5 predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

I can't believe we're already going into Week 5 of the USFL season; it's been a fun ride. And if you have been following this space, you know it's been profitable for us from a betting perspective.

Last week we went 1-3-1, but we lost one game on the hook and pushed on a total that looked good for most of the game. Overall, we're still green on the year, with the season tally moving to 10-7-1 over the first four weeks.

I love giving you all my best USFL bets every week, so if you want to throw a few bucks down on the games, I have you covered. 

Let's dive into the Week 5 action, which you can catch at FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App.

Pittsburgh Maulers (1-3) at Michigan Panthers (2-2), 12:30 p.m., USA

This matchup features two bad offenses in what should be the lowest-scoring game of the week. The Maulers have struggled to turn possessions into TD — only one in 12 trips — all season, while the Panthers have turned it over eight times (second most in the league). Michigan is also searching for steady QB play, as neither Josh Love nor Carson Strong has played well enough to claim the job.

I'm not expecting a lot of fireworks. I'll take the Under. 

PICK: Under 42.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Houston Gamblers (2-2) at Birmingham Stallions (3-1), 4 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App

The Stallions overcame a couple of early turnovers last week and got help from their special teams to thwart Pittsburgh’s upset bid. Houston’s offense has been a juggernaut behind running back Mark Thompson and quarterback Kenji Behar, but I think coming off the big win last week, the Gamblers will have the full attention of the Stallions. Birmingham will surely get better OL and QB play than the Stars did last week.

I’ll lay the points. 

PICK: Stallions (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points

New Jersey Generals (2-2) vs. Philadelphia Stars (1-3) at Detroit, noon, NBC/Peacock

No team in the USFL has allowed fewer points than the Generals. NJ did a good job keeping undefeated New Orleans out of the end zone last week but just couldn’t generate enough offense to get the W. 

Philadelphia has been a massive disappointment this season, coming off a successful 2022. I’m not sure if this is the unit you want to face when you are struggling in basically every facet of the offense right now. I don’t fully trust the Generals' offense to go up and down the field, but the best unit in this game is the NJ defense, so I would expect points to be at a premium here. 

PICK: Under 43.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Memphis Showboats (1-3) vs. New Orleans Breakers (4-0) at Birmingham, 3 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App

Memphis may have turned a corner in the last two weeks with a dominant win over Michigan and a near-upset of the high-powered Houston offense. Cole Kelley has emerged at QB for the Showboats, and I like this spot for Memphis against the undefeated Breakers, who have three one-score wins and have been put through the gamut of New Jersey-Birmingham-Houston the last three weeks. 

At some point, you’d expect a bit of a flat effort from New Orleans, and this might be the spot against the 1-3 Showboats. 

I'll take the points.

PICK: Showboats (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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